pkz [Archive]

**vin** Tue Mar 01, 2005 5:13 pm

pkz
Is PKZ worth the risk?

pkz total oil reserve has at least 350Million barrel oil . (investor conference was anounced 490 million barrel oil). net LT debt-cash of 80 million, 3 million acr land. outstanding share 76 mil.

Ingore PKZ gas reserve , ignore land value, ignore oil pipe value. assume $40 barrel oil.

PKZ stock should be (350*40 -80)/76= $183. It trades at $52 now. or 25% of its NAV.

Is PKZ worth the risk?

http://www.petrokazakhstan.com/

**yhan** Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:19 pm

It looks pretty good., but there are two questions:
1. there are no insider transactions at all. How come?
2. is this stock a cyclilic? it is down to about $2/share in 1999? it is operated in Kazakhstan? risk in operating in foreign counties?

P/E : 7.21

earning /share
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

0.19 1.92 2.02 1.93 3.91
0.00% 910.53% 5.21% -4.46% 102.59%

sale /share
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

#DIV/0! 6.476 7.402 10.200 14.319
0.00% 0.00% 14.30% 37.80% 40.38%

**blast_investor** Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:57 am

oil fields in Kazakhstan. I do not know much about Kazakhstan. Too risky.

US oil stocks are already very cheap. I will stick with US or maybe Canadian oil stocks.

**vin** Wed Mar 02, 2005 10:36 am

agree.

cons of PKZ is its divident is too low. WB bought PTR because at least 50% of earning goes to divi. So he took the risk. I just do not how to asset the country risk. it seems 25% of NAV can not adjust the country risk.

BTW, PKZ is its oil is piping towards china.

**vin** Wed Mar 02, 2005 10:46 am

oil is cyclilic and commodity. no brand name, ip or network power.Value of oil company is determined by oil price, they will reduce production when margin is not high enough. but $40 barrel will make them want to pump out everything they have, especially when comparing with $. And Mr. president/goverment is the biggest pumper for oil.

**night** Fri Mar 04, 2005 2:04 pm

I read article on several value stock picks at TheStreet the other day. It mentioned PKZ specifically: something you can't read from the financial reports of the company. The Kazakhstan government, from time to time, charges special "tax" to oil companies. It's not a good buy. Blast is right, avoid stocks with too much unknown uncertainty.

It also mentioned USG, but I don't think the lawsuit is a problem, at least not a problem until the Demoncrats take over the Congress as well as the Whitehouse. :)