Piggy back a great guru?

**recortes** Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:58 pm

Piggy back a great guru?
Hi everyone,

I'd like to know whether is a good idea to piggy back great gurus like Greenblatt. In partircular, this one has a small portfolio and seems easier to track.

I think to follow several gurus can be misleading, but just a few of them with a philosophy similar to yours might work out. Do you think that tracking the moves of big gurus at gurufocus.com is a good idea?. Realistically can be used as an investment system?.

Another question for Henry. What do you think of the investment in commodities?. Jim Rogers advocates for soft commidities...

Thanks.

**blast_investor** Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:09 pm

Hi recortes:

Guru watch is what we do regularly as said in my article here:
http://www.blastinvest.com/article/2005TopLead.htm

on the hand, you have to realize the limitation of information. Gurus typically do not want to disclose information of their position and trades. What you get is delayed information mostly from SEC filing, which has its limitations.

**recortes** Fri Apr 06, 2007 6:33 am

blast_investor wrote: Hi recortes:

Guru watch is what we do regularly as said in my article here:
http://www.blastinvest.com/article/2005TopLead.htm

on the hand, you have to realize the limitation of information. Gurus typically do not want to disclose information of their position and trades. What you get is delayed information mostly from SEC filing, which has its limitations.

Thank Henry for the quick answer. Three additional questions

-if the SEC is filled every quarter I suppose the most delayed information we can have is about three months. Is this right?.

-from a value investor perspective, does it make much difference to know the new purchases of Buffet, Greenblat, Rogers .. with several months of delay?. The most of this guys keep the positions for years.

- is there any information about the average holding time of the gurus?. BTW. what's the average holding time of blastinvest?.

Thanks.

**blast_investor** Sun Apr 08, 2007 11:25 pm

Hi recortes,

Right, large position (such as Buffett's) has disclosure quarterly, so lot of guru trade information is delayed by 1Q.

On time delay, it does matter from time to time mainly due to pricing difference. If the price does not change over 1Q, then it is not an issue, you get same entry price as guru. But many times, the price changed a lot.

Second of all, it is not just delay issue. It is issue of incomplete information. SEC only require large positions to be disclosed. Therefore, many gurus information is not complete, just some large positions of their portfolio.

Our approach at BlastInvest is long term buy and hold, low turn over approach. I have not done any calculation, but I believe average holding time is quite long, close to a year, some many years, some less than a year.

But again, value investing field has different type of investors. Some value approach, particularly event-driven (arbitrage, spin off, etc special situations) methods tend to have short holding time. I expect Joel Greenblatt's approach is in this camp. This was obvious from his book. Therefore, information 3 months of delay is pretty much useless on Greenblatt's picks. He probably already sold when you find his stock.

recortes wrote:
Thank Henry for the quick answer. Three additional questions

-if the SEC is filled every quarter I suppose the most delayed information we can have is about three months. Is this right?.

-from a value investor perspective, does it make much difference to know the new purchases of Buffet, Greenblat, Rogers .. with several months of delay?. The most of this guys keep the positions for years.

- is there any information about the average holding time of the gurus?. BTW. what's the average holding time of blastinvest?.

Thanks.

**Mosguy** Mon Apr 09, 2007 6:42 pm

Speaking of watching a guru. I'm sure everyone heard that Buffett is

into railroads recently. Personally, I really try to think like the Buffett

(as much I can, anyway). And it amazes me how he finds

opportunities that are right under everyones nose! I haven't looked

into any railroads as yet but I think I will.

Good investing.