MCO, BAC

**xuedong_zhang** Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:54 pm

MCO, BAC
Is it time to load now?

What is the future of finance sector in 1 year?

Any comments?

**grapes** Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:50 pm

Re: MCO, BAC
I listened the most recent conference call.

Bright side: They bought back $484M @$53 last quarter. Issued 0.5M to employee. This year they totally reduced the share count 11%, at the cost of loading 1B debt at interest rate 5%. The share count reducement is amazing. It is basically the same percentage of all the previous years since public.

Dark side: pretty much lower all the guidance in the 4 areas they rated. My impression is that some bright side like commercial CDO, investment grade coporate finance etc growth in short term can't really cancel out the lost of revenue from residential CDO, home equity line rating, bank loan rating etc. Next quarter can be even worse.

However, MHP's pitch is a little bit better than Moody's, though they reported earlier.

So all in all, it looked like the business is not stable yet. But stock prices wise, next quarter, no one really know.

xuedong_zhang wrote: Is it time to load now?

What is the future of finance sector in 1 year?

Any comments?

**xuedong_zhang** Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:31 pm

Re: MCO, BAC
BAC have more than 20% china construction bank share,
(which worth more than 30 billion at current market)

Plus BAC is paying $2.62 per share every year, so it seems to me this is a safe investment. Though I am not expert to value these banks.

Also, as a retailer bank, I love the large consumer base of BAC.
which means they could increase revenue by selling more products
directly to these consumers (with the internet, more and more
people are manage their wealth and finance service in an integrated way).

xuedong_zhang wrote: Is it time to load now?

What is the future of finance sector in 1 year?

Any comments?