Merger Arbitrage Web Site

**blast_investor** Thu Dec 06, 2007 1:36 am

Merger Arbitrage Web Site
I found this web site provides excellent merger arbitrage stock picks:

http://www.mergerinvesting.com/pendingmergers

It provides free daily update on all pending deals.

**arby123** Wed Dec 12, 2007 8:48 am

Merger Arbitrage Web Site
Blast,

That website sucks. It just puts up information on mergers that is already publicly available. No guidance or analysis whatsoever. Waste of time, to be honest.

We use this service: www.maresearch.com

They actually no what's going to happen in any given merger.

**jmrisley** Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:44 am

Excellent Arbitrage Website
Blast,

Enclosed is an excellent arbitrage website.

http://www.arbitrageview.com/riskarb.htm

Jeff R.

**jmrisley** Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:54 am

Question About Risk in Arbitrage Investing
Blast,

How do you measure the risk when investing in these arbitrage deals?

A big concern I always have with these deals is that if the deal falls through the stock sinks like a lead weight. A great example recently is ADS. If someone would have bought this stock at 70 they would have lost a lot of money. It currently is trading around $55.

Last question is really a value trap question why don't you sell of some of the stocks which are just hanging around and invest in more of these arbitrage deals instead of the two you currently have?

Enclosed is an excellent website for current artbitrage deals...

http://www.arbitrageview.com/riskarb.htm

Jeff R.

**blast_investor** Tue Feb 12, 2008 1:19 pm

Re: Question About Risk in Arbitrage Investing
jmrisley wrote: Blast,

How do you measure the risk when investing in these arbitrage deals?
Jeff R.

Hi jmrisley,

My take on those arbitrage deal is both on the valuation fundamental of buyout price, and the spread of the profit.

THe current credit market turmoil on buyout deal is mainly buyer' re morse. Therefore, my take is to get rid of those arbitrage deals where buyers may have remorse. When valuation is so cheap, buyers will not have remorse, therefore the deal is likely to close.

We de-emphasize on the terms of deals. lots of newspaper and analysts focus on the "tightness" of deal, or size of break up fee. I think that is wrong way to look at the deals today. There is always likely to have some holes in the deal to allow buyer walking away.

As for why I am less interested in more deals. THat is fair question, I think many deals don't work for buyers due to valuation reasons. Maybe they will close eventually, but the risk is pretty high if the valuation and fundamental don't work for buyers.

We only want those deals that buyers have every reason to close, rather than remorse.

**zhang242463** Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:27 pm

Re: Question About Risk in Arbitrage Investing
equally important is deal dynamics. For example, in the case of CCU, the shareholder such as Merrill Lynch is benefiting from the deal while it might also be providing debt commitment (i'm yet to find who finance the debt if I have time) ML has 20M shares of CCU, and stands to make 300M on the deal. If ML is providing 4B debt, it will also lose ~400M to 500M in the deal.

blast_investor wrote: jmrisley wrote: Blast,

How do you measure the risk when investing in these arbitrage deals?
Jeff R.

Hi jmrisley,

My take on those arbitrage deal is both on the valuation fundamental of buyout price, and the spread of the profit.

THe current credit market turmoil on buyout deal is mainly buyer' re morse. Therefore, my take is to get rid of those arbitrage deals where buyers may have remorse. When valuation is so cheap, buyers will not have remorse, therefore the deal is likely to close.

We de-emphasize on the terms of deals. lots of newspaper and analysts focus on the "tightness" of deal, or size of break up fee. I think that is wrong way to look at the deals today. There is always likely to have some holes in the deal to allow buyer walking away.

As for why I am less interested in more deals. THat is fair question, I think many deals don't work for buyers due to valuation reasons. Maybe they will close eventually, but the risk is pretty high if the valuation and fundamental don't work for buyers.

We only want those deals that buyers have every reason to close, rather than remorse.

**jmrisley** Sat Feb 16, 2008 9:24 am

Applaud Recent Trades
Blast,

I applaud your recent sells especially of USG. I think that adding to CCU was the right move for now.

I think in a couple of months when the CCU deal closes you probably will be able to buy back USG at or around the same price you sold it for. Unfortantely their business is really slow...

When you get some time take a look at TOP Ship Inc. symbol TOPS. This company is trading way below book value. This might be a great addition after the CCU deal. I normally don't look at stocks under four dollars but it ran across my radar screen.

Thanks,

Jeff R.