comcast

**alex_li_98** Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:55 pm

comcast
I bought comcast when media reported Buffet bought a stake. but it has since slipped >15%.

Blast, can you comment on CMCSA? Thanks!

-Alex

**yhan** Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:12 am

I think comcast is not a good buy. Blast, can you comment ?

**grus2003** Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:50 am

I think CMCSA may have trouble in coming years if IPTV gets popular.

yhan wrote: I think comcast is not a good buy. Blast, can you comment ?

**balaoko** Thu Oct 27, 2005 11:22 am

I am quite confusing about Buffet's picking, see also pir. He bought it at about 18, and now it is around 10. If B picks undervalued stocks like cmcsa or pir, why they just go south? Since B is a so famous investor, if the stock is omitted by the market before, after B picked it up and everyone knows it, they should go approach to their fair value. I just cannot understand the phenomena:(

grus2003 wrote: I think CMCSA may have trouble in coming years if IPTV gets popular.

yhan wrote: I think comcast is not a good buy. Blast, can you comment ?

**blast_investor** Thu Oct 27, 2005 11:44 am

When Buffet's Comcast investment hit news wires, I immediately studied it and the whole sector including all other cable companies.

I spent lots of hours on their financial statements and conference calls etc.

In the end, I decided not to put my personal money in it, therefore, I can not recommend it in my newsletter BIRTP as well due to rule that I have to invest my money into every recommended stocks of BIRTP.

I believe Comcast stock is still very solid with growing business. Its valuation is not expensive. However, my opinion is that this stock is unlikely to deliver 20% per year return over the long run. There is also a technology risk of phone company (IP TV) and wireless threat. This stock should be able to reward shareholders 10% per year in the long run so that long term buy and hold on it should be fine as Buffet already mentioned in his letter that he is shooting for 10% return due to his fund size.

Of course, 10% does not meet my criteria. I am greedy and I am looking for 20% and I actually delivered 50% per year over past 2 years for BIRTP readers! :D

**blast_investor** Thu Oct 27, 2005 11:54 am

Hi balaoko,

Buffet is great long term value investor. But he does not know how to trade short term. Therefore, situation like PIR would not be surprising.

You can not expect to follow his stocks and make bucks easily in short term. Over the long run, Buffet has proven himself in performance and there is no need to debate about that.

You can read my article (Buffet pick USG) for past examples:
http://www.blastinvest.com/article/MarginMoney.htm

**balaoko** Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:30 pm

Very good article, very impressive, especially the key sentence. 3x a lot :)

blast_investor wrote: Making big money in stock market is not all about stock picks, it is also about sound money management

**yongxin** Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:33 pm

B
Many people follow B. This could make money by itself. I wonder How much money B made by "his famous" and how much money made by his picks?
If his pick did not work well, that mean it is really bad :oops: .

"Since B is a so famous investor, if the stock is omitted by the market before, after B picked it up and everyone knows it, they should go approach to their fair value. I just cannot understand the phenomena:(
"

**blast_investor** Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:49 pm

yongxin,

Many Buffet followers in the stock market are short term traders and daytraders. How would you expect short term traders to make money by following Buffet's picks? Buffet does not even know or care how to trade short term.

Short term traders following Buffet picks is like gambling, sometimes make profit, sometimes cut in loss. But Buffet's long time investing was and has been almost 100% profitable.

There are long term investors who invested with Buffet for many decades and they are mostly millionaires and billionaires. They started as ordinary regular folks without much money initially.

**blast_investor** Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:13 pm

yongxin,

Buffet name alone is not big enough to change market mood.

Take USG as example, after Buffet invested into it in 2001, it sanked into new lows and stayed there for years, a loss of 40% to 50%.

Traders who followed Buffet in USG in 2001 could be in a loss of 40% to 50% if they cut loss. Most likely traders would cut because a typical short term trader would do stop loss even at 10% to 20% drop.

Long term investors who invested together with Buffet in USG since 2001 would make 40% per year return if she/he hold through the big losses.

**yongxin** Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:45 am

Thanks
Thanks. I guess I am still using the thought of short-term traders.