vphm, huge selloff recently, ok to entry?

**hydralistor** Sun Mar 19, 2006 9:23 pm

vphm, huge selloff recently, ok to entry?
it's a one drug company now, it is very profitable.
fda loose requirement of generic verson drug, cause it drop from >20 to 10-11 currently.
Can somebody who is familiar with drug, generic drug, clinical trial process share some thoughts?

**springsnailt** Sun Mar 19, 2006 9:43 pm

Two effects with generic durg coming to the market:

1. significantly lower margin (1/2 or less of current)
2. loss of revenue

it's hard to do an accurate forecasting but the fundamental seems bad. Say a loss of 1/2 margin and 1/2 revenue - the PE will be 20+, not really a value play.

**hydralistor** Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:27 pm

But Piper analyst says that the earlist date for generic drug to enter the market is 2010.
In 2006 alone, vphm is expected to earn almost $70M net income.

**springsnailt** Sun Mar 19, 2006 11:15 pm

Do your own research if you think there is really a HUGE opportunities here. Wall Street companies are all crooks and they have their own agendas. Simply put, their interest is NOT your interest.

Here's what I digged out about Pipper Jaffray and VPHM (pay attention to the red part, which happened in Dec-05):

Source link: http://www.piperjaffray.com/info2.aspx?id=209

Transactions

A commitment to long-term relationships and our ability to meet the needs of our clients through all stages of their growth has made us one of the nation's leading providers of investment banking services. Recent transactions include the following:
View Transaction Category:

Date Issuer Type Ticker Deal Size
($ in MM) Team
03/06 CapitalSource Inc. Follow-On Offering CSE 413.6 Financial Institutions
03/06 Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Follow-On Offering UCTT 40.8 Technology
03/06 Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc. Initial Public Offering ALXA 44.0 Health Care
03/06 Eagle Test Systems Inc. Initial Public Offering EGLT 100.8 Technology
03/06 Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. Follow-On Offering ENER 343.0 Technology
02/06 Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. Follow-On Offering MDRX 149.0 Health Care
02/06 Acordia Therapeutics, Inc. Initial Public Offering ACOR 36.5 Health Care
02/06 Morton's Restaurant Group Inc. Initial Public Offering MRT 160.9 Consumer
02/06 Nighthawk Radiology Holdings, Inc. Initial Public Offering NHWK 115.9 Health Care
02/06 Crocs, Inc. Initial Public Offering CROX 239.1 Consumer
02/06 Resource Capital Corp. Initial Public Offering RSO 60.0 Financial Institutions
02/06 Vital Signs, Inc. Follow-On Offering VITL 97.3 Health Care
01/06 SGX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Initial Public Offering SGXP 24.9 Health Care
01/06 Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Follow-On Offering ALNY 66.5 Health Care
01/06 Focus Media Holding Limited Follow-On Offering FMCN 322.6 Technology
01/06 SeaBright Insurance Holdings, Inc. Follow-On Offering SEAB 115.9 Financial Institutions
01/06 Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. Follow-On Offering ARNA 179.8 Health Care
01/06 Citi Trends, Inc. Follow-On Offering CTRN 81.4 Consumer
01/06 New York & Company, Inc. Follow-On Offering NWY 148.9 Consumer
12/05 Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Initial Public Offering SOMX 55.0 Health Care
12/05 ViroPharma Incorporated Follow-On Offering VPHM 173.4 Health Care
12/05 Volcom, Inc. Follow-On Offering VLCM 177.0 Consumer
11/05 Under Armour Inc. Initial Public Offering UARM 181.3 Consumer
11/05 Vimicro International Corporation Initial Public Offering VIMC 87.0 Technology
11/05 IHS Inc. Initial Public Offering IHS 267.1 Technology
11/05 Zumiez Inc. Follow-On Offering ZUMZ 97.2 Consumer
11/05 Clearant Inc. PIPE CLRI 12.0 Health Care
11/05 Myriad Genetics, Inc. Follow-On Offering MYGN 149.0 Health Care
11/05 Website Pros, Inc. Initial Public Offering WSPI 68.0 Technology
10/05 CoTherix, Inc. Follow-On Offering CTRX 67.3 Health Care
10/05 CapitalSource Inc. Follow-On Offering CSE 429.3 Financial Institutions
09/05 Genomic Health Inc. Initial Public Offering GHDX 60.2 Health Care
09/05 Renovis, Inc. Follow-On Offering RNVS 54.0 Health Care
08/05 Anthracite Capital, Inc. Follow-On Offering AHR 20.0 Financial Institutions
08/05 Ruth's Chris Steak House, Inc. Initial Public Offering RUTH 269.1 Consumer
08/05 Hoku Scientific, Inc. Initial Public Offering HOKU 21.0 Technology
08/05 AtriCure, Inc. Initial Public Offering ATRC 55.2 Health Care
08/05 Baidu.com, Inc. Initial Public Offering BIDU 124.3 Technology
08/05 Anadys Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Follow-On Offering ANDS 71.3 Health Care
08/05 ZymoGenetics, Inc. Follow-On Offering ZGEN 135.0 Health Care
08/05 Advanced Analogic Technologies Inc. Initial Public Offering AATI 121.9 Technology
08/05 MWI Veterinary Supply Co. Initial Public Offering MWIV 84.7 Health Care
07/05 Golf Galaxy, Inc. Initial Public Offering GGXY 63.6 Consumer
07/05 Patriot Capital Funding, Inc. Initial Public Offering PCAP 150.3 Financial Institutions
07/05 Hittite Microwave Corporation Initial Public Offering HITT 88.0 Technology
07/05 Diamond Foods, Inc. Initial Public Offering DMND 117.3 Consumer
07/05 Symmetry Medical Inc. Follow-On Offering SMA 255.9 Health Care
07/05 Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation Follow-On Offering PVH 240.5 Consumer
07/05 Focus Media Holding Ltd. Initial Public Offering FMCN 197.5 Technology
06/05 Volcom, Inc. Initial Public Offering VLCM 102.4 Consumer
06/05 CV Therapeutics, Inc. Follow-On Offering CVTX 180.4 Health Care
06/05 CRA International Follow-On Offering CRAI 102.1 Technology
06/05 MCG Capital Corporation Follow-On Offering MCGC 75.6 Financial Institutions
06/05 ev3 Inc. Initial Public Offering EVVV 164.7 Health Care
06/05 Premium Standard Farms Initial Public Offering PORK 138.7 Consumer
06/05 Rackable Systems Inc. Initial Public Offering RACK 75.0 Technology
06/05 Langer, Inc. Follow-On Offering GAIT 32.5 Health Care
06/05 Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. Follow-On Offering TMA 123.2 Financial Institutions
05/05 SSA Global Technologies, Inc. Initial Public Offering SSAG 99.0 Technology
05/05 IDX Systems Corporation Block Trade IDXC 47.3 Health Care
05/05 Citi Trends, Inc. Initial Public Offering CTRN 62.0 Consumer
05/05 Zumiez Inc. Initial Public Offering ZUMZ 64.7 Consumer
05/05 NAVTEQ Corporation Follow-On Offering NVT 1241.3 Technology
04/05 ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. PIPE ACAD 36.0 Health Care
04/05 DexCom, Inc. Initial Public Offering DXCM 56.4 Health Care
03/05 American Capital Strategies, Ltd. Follow-On Offering ACAS 315.0 Financial Institutions
03/05 Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. Follow-On Offering ALDN 49.3 Technology
03/05 MCG Capital Corporation Follow-On Offering MCGC 31.5 Financial Institutions
03/05 Horizon Health Corporation Follow-On Offering HORC 62.5 Health Care
03/05 Neurochem Inc. Follow-On Offering NRMX 61.2 Health Care
02/05 CoTherix Inc. Follow-On Offering CTRX 37.8 Health Care
02/05 Prestige Brands Holdings Inc. Initial Public Offering PBH 515.2 Consumer
02/05 Marchex, Inc. Initial Public Offering MCHX 184.0 Technology
02/05 Emageon Inc. Initial Public Offering EMAG 74.8 Health Care
02/05 FTD Group, Inc. Initial Public Offering FTD 176.0 Technology
02/05 Hurray! Holding Co., Ltd. Initial Public Offering HRAY 70.5 Technology
02/05 Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Follow-On Offering ARNA 51.8 Health Care
01/05 Dollar Financial Corp. Initial Public Offering DLLR 120.0 Financial Institutions
01/05 SeaBright Insurance Holdings, Inc. Initial Public Offering SEAB 90.6 Financial Institutions
12/04 Ctrip.com International Ltd. Follow-On Offering CTRP 92.8 Technology
12/04 Wintrust Financial Corporation Follow-On Offering WTFC 71.4 Financial Institutions
12/04 Symmetry Medical Inc. Initial Public Offering SMA 138.0 Health Care
12/04 Array Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Follow-On Offering ARRY 71.3 Health Care
12/04 HouseValues, Inc. Initial Public Offering SOLD 94.0 Technology
12/04 Greenfield Online Inc. Follow-On Offering SRVY 125.3 Technology
11/04 HealthExtras, Inc. Follow-On Offering HLEX 84.0 Health Care
11/04 Monolithic Power Systems Initial Public Offering MPWR 53.4 Technology
11/04 Overstock.com Inc. Follow-On Offering OSTK 79.4 Technology
11/04 Tempur-Pedic International Inc. Follow-On Offering TPX 283.5 Consumer
11/04 Portfolio Recovery Associates, Inc. Follow-On Offering PRAA 67.4 Financial Institutions
10/04 FoxHollow Technologies, Inc. Initial Public Offering FOXH 72.5 Health Care
10/04 Shopping.com Ltd. Initial Public Offering SHOP 142.2 Technology
10/04 VNUS Medical Technologies Inc. Initial Public Offering VNUS 80.6 Health Care
10/04 CoTherix, Inc. Initial Public Offering CTRX 30.0 Health Care
10/04 B&G Foods Inc. Initial Public Offering BGF 300.0 Consumer
10/04 Gold Kist Holdings Inc. Initial Public Offering GKIS 132.0 Consumer
10/04 New York & Company, Inc. Initial Public Offering NWY 195.5 Consumer
10/04 PeopleSupport, Inc. Initial Public Offering PSPT 51.9 Technology
09/04 CallWave, Inc. Initial Public Offering CALL 40.0 Technology
09/04 New Century REIT, Inc. Initial Public Offering NEW 783.0 Financial Institutions
09/04 Ness Technologies, Inc. Initial Public Offering NSTC 161.1 Technology
09/04 51job, Inc. Initial Public Offering JOBS 84.5 Technology
09/04 MCG Capital Corporation Follow-On Offering MCGC 40.7 Financial Institutions
08/04 TRM Corporation Follow-On Offering TRMM 56.9 Financial Institutions
08/04 JupiterMedia Corp. Block Trade JUPM 18.8 Technology
08/04 Archipelago Holdings, Inc. Initial Public Offering ARCA 145.5 Financial Institutions
08/04 NAVTEQ Corporation Initial Public Offering NVT 1012.0 Technology
08/04 Viisage Technology Inc. Seller Advisory VISG 42.5 Technology
07/04 MortgageIT Holdings, Inc. Initial Public Offering MHL 175.2 Financial Institutions
07/04 MannKind Corp. Initial Public Offering MNKD 91.8 Health Care
07/04 RC2 Corporation Follow-On Offering RCRC 89.1 Consumer
07/04 Volterra Semiconductor Corporation Initial Public Offering VLTR 36.5 Technology
07/04 Inspire Pharmaceuticals Inc. Follow-On Offering ISPH 82.8 Health Care
07/04 Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. Follow-On Offering AUXL 41.3 Health Care
07/04 Greenfield Online Inc. Follow-On Offering SRVY 74.8 Technology
07/04 Phase Forward Incorporated Initial Public Offering PFWD 41.9 Technology
07/04 American Capital Strategies, Ltd. Follow-On Offering ACAS 123.9 Financial Institutions
07/04 Affirmative Insurance Holdings, Inc. Initial Public Offering AFFM 131.5 Financial Institutions
06/04 Life Time Fitness Inc. Initial Public Offering LTM 210.6 Consumer
06/04 K2 Inc. Follow-On Offering KTO 99.2 Consumer
06/04 RAIT Investment Trust Follow-On Offering RAS 55.8 Financial Institutions
06/04 Kinetic Concepts Inc. Follow-On Offering KCI 764.8 Health Care
06/04 PowerDsine Ltd. Initial Public Offering PDSN 79.4 Technology
06/04 Hansen Natural Block Trade HANS 11.5 Consumer
05/04 Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Initial Public Offering ALNY 34.5 Health Care
05/04 Critical Therapeutics Inc. Initial Public Offering CRTX 42.8 Health Care
05/04 ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Initial Public Offering ACAD 35.0 Health Care
05/04 JupiterMedia Corp. Follow-On Offering JUPM 40.1 Technology
05/04 Animas Corporation Initial Public Offering PUMP 73.3 Health Care
05/04 Open Solutions Inc. Follow-On Offering OPEN 109.7 Financial Institutions
05/04 Deckers Outdoor Corporation Follow-On Offering DECK 86.6 Consumer
05/04 Shanda Interactive Entertainment Initial Public Offering SNDA 169.0 Technology
05/04 IntraBiotics Pharmaceuticals Inc. Follow-On Offering IBPI 44.9 Health Care
04/04 Retalix Ltd. Follow-On Offering RTLX 62.1 Technology
04/04 Gander Mountain Inc. Initial Public Offering GMTN 105.3 Consumer
04/04 Charlotte Russe Holding, Inc. Follow-On Offering CHIC 52.8 Consumer
04/04 Corcept Therapeutics Inc. Initial Public Offering CORT 54.0 Health Care
03/04 Cutera Inc. Initial Public Offering CUTR 56.9 Health Care
03/04 Anadys Pharmaceuticals Inc. Initial Public Offering ANDS 49.0 Health Care
03/04 Tessera Technologies, Inc. Follow-On Offering TSRA 85.7 Technology
03/04 Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Initial Public Offering UCTT 47.0 Technology
03/04 Xcyte Therapies Inc. Initial Public Offering XCYT 33.6 Health Care
03/04 Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc. Follow-On Offering HE 103.7 Financial Institutions
03/04 Tom Online Inc. Initial Public Offering TOMO 194.0 Technology
03/04 Linktone Ltd. Initial Public Offering LTON 86.0 Technology
02/04 Kinetic Concepts Inc. Initial Public Offering KCI 540.0 Health Care
02/04 Dynavax Technologies Initial Public Offering DVAX 45.0 Health Care
02/04 dj Orthopedics Follow-On Offering DJO 163.9 Health Care
02/04 Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. Follow-On Offering TMA 101.5 Financial Institutions
02/04 Corgentech, Inc. Follow-On Offering CGTK 96.0 Health Care
02/04 MFA Mortgage Investments Inc. Follow-On Offering MFA 76.0 Financial Institutions
02/04 Intevac, Inc. Follow-On Offering IVAC 71.3 Technology
02/04 Renovis, Inc. Initial Public Offering RNVS 66.0 Health Care
02/04 Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust Follow-On Offering PEI 161.3 Financial Institutions
02/04 CapitalSource Inc. Follow-On Offering CSE 376.3 Financial Institutions
02/04 Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Follow-On Offering ONXX 156.5 Health Care
01/04 Lipman Electronic Engineering Ltd. Initial Public Offering LPMA 124.8 Financial Institutions
01/04 Dendreon Corporation Follow-On Offering DNDN 130.7 Health Care
01/04 CryoLife Inc. PIPE CRY 21.5 Health Care
01/04 Cache, Inc. Follow-On Offering CACH 45.5 Consumer
01/04 Komag, Inc. Follow-On Offering KOMG 70.0 Technology
01/04 Tower Semiconductor Follow-On Offering TSEM 80.1 Technology
01/04 Roxio Inc. PIPE ROXI 22.6 Technology

**hydralistor** Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:59 am

it just got 2 downgrade this morning, expecting more downside.
It is probably not a good play.

**hydralistor** Thu Mar 30, 2006 6:56 am

vphm just publisehd fantastic new drug clinical trial report.
I think it will go up significantly from $11.
I got some calls of it. hoho.

**springsnailt** Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:11 am

Phase II, at least another two years to wrap up Phase III, which has huge uncertainty...